7
Tornado Warning
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 7 · OR 77
Charles Town · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Charles Town | Warren Iii Ebow | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | Charles Town | Jahnxander Raspaldo | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Charles Town | Jahnxander Raspaldo | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Charles Town | Jahnxander Raspaldo | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Charles Town | Walter Cullum | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 85/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +23.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/2026 | 10th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 19/09/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 22/10/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |