Arnay Le Duc
4yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 9
Deauville · Prix Du Buste De Francois-Andre Claiming Stakes - Awt · 1m 4f 94y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Lyon La Soie | H Besnier | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-10-03 | ParisLongchamp | I Mendizabal | 1 | 14th | 12th | +2 |
| 2026-08-25 | Deauville | Pierre-Charles Boudot | 2 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Clairefontaine | Pierre-Charles Boudot | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Compiegne | Pierre-Charles Boudot | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Saint-Cloud | M Favriaux | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 25/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 22/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 25/08/2026 | 14th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 03/10/2026 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 24% | +0.24 |
| 21/10/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |