9
Incremental
6yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 5 · OR 85
Deauville · Prix Du Buste De Francois-Andre Claiming Stakes - Awt · 1m 4f 94y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
33%
Place Prob
41%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.4
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Deauville | T Piccone | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Deauville | M Guyon | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Compiegne | M Guyon | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Dieppe | M Guyon | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Lyon-Parilly | T Bachelot | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Compiegne | N Baudet | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 3-6 · tight 74/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength57%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 15/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 07/05/2026 | 16th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 20/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 82% | -0.01 |
| 18/08/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |