Machete

7yo Gelding · 9-1 · Draw 3 · OR 82

Deauville · Prix Du Buste De Francois-Andre Claiming Stakes - Awt · 1m 4f 94y

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▬

Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 1

Recent avg: C3.5

Today: 3

Class gap: -0.5

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-02	Lyon La Soie	T Bachelot	4	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-09-06	ParisLongchamp	T Bachelot	2	13th	12th	+1	1.0
2026-08-20	Deauville	Marvin Grandin	3	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-06-27	York	Mr Matt Brown	4	4th	5th	−1	4.8
2026-05-01	Newcastle	Ben Robinson	4	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-03-21	Newcastle	D Tudhope	4	6th	7th	−1	2.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 74/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
13/01/2026	6th	4/1	79%	0%	-0.79
30/01/2026	4th	11/2	71%	67%	-0.04
12/02/2026	3rd	5/1	74%	67%	-0.07
21/03/2026	6th	11/2	71%	17%	-0.54
01/05/2026	3rd	11/2	71%	50%	-0.21
27/06/2026	4th	14/1	26%	77%	+0.51
20/08/2026	6th	8/1	58%	55%	-0.03
06/09/2026	13th	33/1	0%	20%	+0.20
02/10/2026	2nd	7/2	82%	88%	+0.06