4
Bech River
8yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 15
Deauville · Prix D'essay Handicap - Awt · 1m 1f 97y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Saint-Cloud | A Le Lay Martin | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-22 | Vichy | A Mosse | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Saint-Cloud | A Le Lay Martin | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Clairefontaine | P Lotout | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Vichy | A Mosse | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | ParisLongchamp | A Mosse | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1680% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength73%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 93% | +0.51 |
| 15/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 13/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 02/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 79% | +0.18 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 71% | +0.66 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 38% | -0.31 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 69% | +0.17 |
| 22/09/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 14/10/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 92% | +0.50 |