5
Dayak
6yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 14
Deauville · Prix D'essay Handicap - Awt · 1m 1f 97y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
91%
Place Prob
68%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Chantilly | F Valle Skar | 3 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-08-26 | La Teste De Buch | F Valle Skar | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-06 | Deauville | F Valle Skar | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-16 | Mont De Marsan | M Lauron | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2024-11-05 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | F Valle Skar | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2024-10-09 | Marseille | F Valle Skar | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16100% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength92%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2024 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 20/07/2024 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 15/09/2024 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 09/10/2024 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 46% | -0.01 |
| 05/11/2024 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 16/07/2025 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 64% | +0.09 |
| 06/11/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 92% | +0.66 |
| 29/09/2026 | 12th | 5/1 | 74% | 15% | -0.58 |