13
Not So Silly
8yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 11
Deauville · Prix D'essay Handicap - Awt · 1m 1f 97y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 8.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Chantilly | L Bails | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | Dieppe | B Marie | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Dieppe | S Castela | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Clairefontaine | T Piccone | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Le Touquet | K Vanderbeke | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Clairefontaine | A Crastus | 3 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 75/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/2026 | 13th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 11/07/2026 | 12th | 100/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 07/08/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 16/08/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 40% | -0.02 |
| 29/08/2026 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 71% | +0.66 |
| 17/09/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 54% | +0.17 |
| 07/10/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.45 |