3
Why Not
2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 9
Deauville · Prix De Saint-loyer-des-champs Handicap - Awt · 6f 211y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Chantilly | M Lerner | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | Saint-Cloud | M Lerner | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Clairefontaine | M Lerner | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Dieppe | M Lerner | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Saint-Cloud | M Lerner | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Saint-Cloud | M Lerner | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 87/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +12.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 18/07/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 14/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 07/10/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |