3
Baileys Eclair
6yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 10
Deauville · Prix Du Chateau De Beaufosse Handicap - Awt · 1m 1f 97y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Chantilly | M Velon | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | Compiegne | Miss M Rollando | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | Chantilly | M Favriaux | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Deauville | M Favriaux | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Clairefontaine | A Baron | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Saint-Malo | A Baron | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16100% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength98%
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 22/07/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 42% | -0.40 |
| 14/08/2026 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 01/09/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 14/09/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 62% | -0.04 |
| 24/09/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 83% | +0.78 |
| 07/10/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |