Joao
9yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 15
Deauville · Prix Du Chateau De Beaufosse Handicap - Awt · 1m 1f 97y
#8
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 7.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Chantilly | T Trullier | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | Dieppe | T Trullier | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Clairefontaine | Thomas Trullier | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Clairefontaine | Thomas Trullier | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-19 | Vittel | D Breux | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Chantilly | F Valle Skar | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/04/2026 | 15th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/05/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 25/05/2026 | 12th | 18/1 | 5% | 21% | +0.16 |
| 19/06/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 19/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 17/09/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.38 |
| 07/10/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 67% | +0.61 |