Melanies Joy
5yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 11
Deauville · Prix De Beaufosse Handicap - Awt · 1m 1f 97y
#1
Rank
Odds
1/1
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
72%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Chantilly | M Barzalona | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Saint-Cloud | M Barzalona | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Clairefontaine | M Barzalona | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Clairefontaine | M Barzalona | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Chantilly | E Solinas | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Compiegne | M Guyon | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 54% | -0.25 |
| 28/04/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 15/05/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 09/06/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 47% | -0.01 |
| 19/06/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 42% | +0.05 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 93% | +0.41 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 93% | +0.05 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 92% | +0.03 |
| 07/10/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 93% | -0.02 |