8
Abacur
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 11
Deauville · Prix Du Chateau De Tocqueville - Awt · 7f 100y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Mont De Marsan | M Protti | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-08-05 | La Teste De Buch | Marvin Grandin | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Dax | M Protti | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Toulouse | M Foulon | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | I Mendizabal | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-04-01 | La Teste De Buch | M Foulon | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 2-10 · tight 40/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/02/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 01/03/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 42% | -0.29 |
| 10/03/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 01/04/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 27/04/2026 | 11th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 08/06/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 30% | -0.38 |
| 17/07/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 22% | -0.30 |
| 05/08/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 30% | -0.12 |
| 17/08/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |