3
Charismatic Chick
4yo Filly · 9-1 · Draw 3
Deauville · Prix Du Chateau De Tocqueville - Awt · 7f 100y
#6
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Deauville | J Moutard | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-10-05 | Deauville | A Duquesnoy | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-27 | Amiens | A Duquesnoy | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | ParisLongchamp | A Duquesnoy | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Deauville | A Duquesnoy | 3 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Deauville | A Duquesnoy | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 50/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength29%
Delivery trend -7.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 13/07/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 42% | +0.15 |
| 02/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 20/08/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 27% | +0.11 |
| 13/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 27/09/2026 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 31% | -0.43 |
| 05/10/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 42% | +0.05 |
| 27/10/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |