6
Favory Chop
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 6
Deauville · Prix Du Chateau De Tocqueville - Awt · 7f 100y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Deauville | Eddy Hardouin | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | ParisLongchamp | C Demuro | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | X Bergeron | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Chantilly | Guillaume Trolley De Prevaux | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-02-19 | Chantilly | Guillaume Trolley De Prevaux | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-01-30 | Deauville | Guillaume Trolley De Prevaux | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 50/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength14%
Delivery trend -12.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/12/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 85% | +0.79 |
| 18/12/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 87% | +0.81 |
| 09/01/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 30/01/2026 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 18% | -0.50 |
| 19/02/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 26/03/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 11/04/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 46% | -0.38 |
| 24/05/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 18% | +0.02 |
| 05/10/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 10% | -0.37 |