4
Herodion
10yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4
Deauville · Prix Du Chateau De Tocqueville - Awt · 7f 100y
#1
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
85%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▼4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +4.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-17 | Deauville | A Hamelin | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Deauville | C Lecoeuvre | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Chantilly | C Lecoeuvre | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Deauville | C Lecoeuvre | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Chantilly | C Lecoeuvre | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-09-15 | Chantilly | C Lecoeuvre | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 50/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength18%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 02/05/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 16/05/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 64% | +0.59 |
| 15/09/2025 | 13th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 30/09/2025 | 12th | 66/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 22/10/2025 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 08/11/2025 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 26/11/2025 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 17/12/2025 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.38 |