Out Of The Blue
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 7
Deauville · Prix Du Chateau De Tocqueville - Awt · 7f 100y
#9
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Fontainebleau | Mme Ella Muntwyler | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-10-05 | Deauville | Mme Ella Muntwyler | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-20 | Fontainebleau | Mme Ella Muntwyler | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-09-14 | Chantilly | M Pien | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Deauville | H Boutin | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-08-25 | Deauville | E Granvilliers | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +10.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 11/04/2026 | 14th | 12/1 | 37% | 7% | -0.30 |
| 06/08/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 25/08/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 54% | +0.38 |
| 01/09/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 14/09/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 20/09/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 05/10/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 16/10/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 56% | +0.13 |