10
Rue Ernestine
4yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 5
Deauville · Prix Du Chateau De Tocqueville - Awt · 7f 100y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-30 | Deauville | F Veron | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-10-17 | Le Croise-Laroche | A Madamet | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-29 | Craon | C Raimbault | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-06-09 | Compiegne | T Bachelot | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-05-04 | ParisLongchamp | T Bachelot | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-03-19 | Toulouse | M Guyon | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 81/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2024 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 79% | +0.18 |
| 30/11/2024 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 22/12/2024 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 19/03/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 04/05/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 09/06/2025 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 31% | -0.30 |
| 29/09/2025 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 17/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 30/12/2025 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |