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6

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5yo Gelding · 11-12

Down Royal · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Hurdle · 2m 6f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

1/6

Win Prob

94%

Place Prob

79%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Expensive point winner (1-1) who was most progressive in bumpers last season. Produced a smart performance (reversing Champion Bumper form) to win Grade 1 at Punchestown in April. Makes obvious appeal sent hurdling by yard who've won this with some useful sorts in recent years.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▼8
Strength99%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 8 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.3
Today:
Class gap: +7.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Navan 06/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 2m Sft 1686/12C?C0 @ Fairyhouse 01/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 2m Yie 1681/01C?1 @ Leopardstown 02/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 2m Hvy 164 · HIGHER CLASS2/0211 @ Cheltenham 11/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 21 · OR - · 2m87y Gd 161 · HIGHER CLASS11/0311 @ Punchestown 29/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 129 · 2m132y Yie 168 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 129 par29/041OR 129projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-29PunchestownJoshua Halford11st-8th+8
2026-03-11CheltenhamMr H C Swan19th0th+8
2026-02-02LeopardstownMr D G Lavery12nd-7th+8
2026-01-01FairyhouseMr H C Swan?1st1st0
2025-12-06NavanJosh Williamson?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/121/012/0211/0329/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 85/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +25.8% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/12/20254th15/890%57%-0.33
01/01/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
02/02/20262nd28/10%83%+0.83
11/03/20269th40/10%60%+0.60
29/04/20261st14/126%100%+0.74