5
Drumconnor Hill
5yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 93
Down Royal · Eventsec Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 3m 45y
#14
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 8.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Gowran Park | Jordan Gainford | BHA95 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Galway | Jordan Gainford | BHA97 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-07 | Wexford | Ben Harvey | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | Ben Harvey | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Ballinrobe | Carl Millar | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Killarney | Ben Harvey | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 2016% of fieldRange 6-20 · tight 46/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength27%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 17th of 20. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 26/05/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 23/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 07/08/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 02/10/2026 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |