18
Katie's Casper
7yo Mare · 10-6 · OR 77
Down Royal · Eventsec Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 3m 45y
#16
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: BHA79
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Downpatrick | Jordan Gainford | BHA79 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Galway | Thomas O'Connor | BHA80 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | Patrick M O'Brien | BHA81 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Roscommon | Patrick M O'Brien | BHA82 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kilbeggan | Alix Balfe | BHA80 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Tramore | Patrick M O'Brien | BHA82 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 2021% of fieldRange 2-20 · tight 29/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength46%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 16th of 20.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/2025 | 8th | 125/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 20/12/2025 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 08/05/2026 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 27% | -0.33 |
| 29/05/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 15/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 92% | +0.50 |
| 06/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 23/07/2026 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 07/09/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 09/10/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |