10
Lord De Choisel
5yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 88
Down Royal · Eventsec Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 3m 45y
#17
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#17
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Limerick | Paddy Cody | BHA90 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Killarney | Paddy Cody | BHA92 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Clonmel | Paddy Cody | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Limerick | Paddy Cody | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-02 | Leopardstown | Paddy Cody | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 2032% of fieldRange 6-11 · tight 73/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength62%
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 20. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 22/03/2026 | 5th | 200/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 02/04/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 16/07/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 17/10/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |