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19

Lost Features

6yo Mare · 10-2 · OR 73

Down Royal · Eventsec Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 3m 45y

#20

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#20

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden who's shown some form in 2 of her last 3 handicap starts, for all she was flattered to be placed when 12 lengths third at Tramore (2½m) last time. Needs to find a fair chunk of improvement on first crack over 3m.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength17%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 9.7)

Highest class: BHA73
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Punchestown 15/11/2024 · Pos 17th of 18 · OR - · 1m7f110y Goo 15915/11C8C8 @ Cork 08/12/2024 · Pos 13th of 20 · OR - · 1m7f145y Sft 159C0 @ Naas 09/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 2m Sft 1659/11C?C8 @ Kilbeggan 24/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR - · 2m110y Goo 159BHA81 @ Wexford 16/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 81 · 2m1f Goo 149 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 81 par16/0581OR 81BHA79 @ Limerick 28/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 18 · OR 79 · 2m3f200y Sft 148 · below its mark28/05/2026 · OR 79 parBHA74 @ Ballinrobe 21/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 74 · 2m6f41y Gd 143 · below its mark21/07/2026 · OR 74 par21/0774OR 74BHA74 @ Ballinrobe 10/08/2026 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR 74 · 2m6f113y Goo 144 · below its mark10/08/2026 · OR 74 parBHA73 @ Tramore 08/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 73 · 2m4f73y Yie 140 · below its mark08/10/2026 · OR 73 par8/1073OR 73projClass-projected finish: 14th of 20
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-08TramoreSean Cleary-FarrellBHA733rd3rd0
2026-08-10BallinrobeGary NoonanBHA7415th15th0
2026-07-21BallinrobePhilip DonovanBHA745th5th0
2026-07-12SligoPhilip DonovanBHA770
2026-05-28LimerickPhilip DonovanBHA798th8th0
2026-05-16WexfordPhilip DonovanBHA819th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/1124/0421/078/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 2011% of fieldRange 7-18 · tight 61/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength39%

Delivery trend +0.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 18th of 20.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/11/202417th250/10%6%+0.06
08/12/202413th250/10%37%+0.37
09/11/20258th200/10%36%+0.36
24/04/20269th300/10%38%+0.38
16/05/20269th50/10%38%+0.38
28/05/20268th50/10%59%+0.59
21/07/20265th66/10%71%+0.71
10/08/202615th22/10%7%+0.07
08/10/20263rd10/147%67%+0.19