12
Scathach
6yo Mare · 11-2 · OR 87
Down Royal · Eventsec Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 3m 45y
#15
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Listowel | Shane O'Callaghan | BHA88 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Cork | Conor Stone-Walsh | BHA89 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Kilbeggan | Danny Gilligan | BHA90 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Sligo | Shane Markey | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Wexford | Shane Markey | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Naas | Liam McKenna | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 2026% of fieldRange 1-20 · tight 20/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 15th of 20.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2025 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 52% | +0.52 |
| 14/01/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 16/05/2026 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 36% | -0.46 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 10/07/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 03/08/2026 | 12th | 18/1 | 5% | 35% | +0.30 |
| 26/09/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 69% | +0.42 |