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4

Spill A Drop

6yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 95

Down Royal · Eventsec Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 3m 45y

#10

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Point winner (dead-heated) who has shown ability in a couple of Downpatrick maidens, finishing 6¾ lengths third of 6 there last time (runner-up ran well since). Could be thereabouts if improving for the step up in trip/switch to handicap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Downpatrick 14/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 2m5f185y Gd 15814/07C8C8 @ Gowran Park 02/10/2026 · Pos 12th of 17 · OR - · 2m4f40y Gd 1662/10C8C8 @ Downpatrick 09/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 2m5f180y Goo 1589/10C8projClass-projected finish: 13th of 20
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-09DownpatrickHarry Sexton?3rd3rd0
2026-10-02Gowran ParkHarry Sexton?12th12th0
2026-09-19NavanHarry Sexton?0
2026-07-14DownpatrickDarragh O'Keeffe?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/072/109/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 2058% of fieldRange 2-17 · tight 39/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength54%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 20. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/07/20266th33/10%55%+0.55
02/10/202612th100/10%31%+0.31
09/10/20263rd25/10%60%+0.60