15
Tara Boe
8yo Mare · 10-10 · OR 81
Down Royal · Eventsec Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 3m 45y
#19
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#19
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 10.6 /10 (raw 9.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Downpatrick | James Smith | BHA83 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-10-02 | Gowran Park | James Smith | BHA84 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | Ballinrobe | Kevin Sexton | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Bellewstown | Josh Williamson | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2024-10-25 | Sligo | Mr A P Ryan | ? | 0 | ||
| 2024-08-08 | Sligo | Mr J L Gleeson | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish20th of 200% of fieldRange 10-20 · tight 61/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 20th of 20. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/2024 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 08/08/2024 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 26/08/2026 | 8th | 300/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 11/09/2026 | 14th | 150/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 02/10/2026 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 32% | +0.32 |
| 09/10/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |