11
The Ducks Walk
8yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 88
Down Royal · Eventsec Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 3m 45y
#12
Rank
Odds
17/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Gowran Park | Richard Condon | BHA81 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Wexford | Richard Condon | BHA82 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Tramore | Richard Condon | BHA83 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kilbeggan | Richard Condon | BHA83 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Tramore | Richard Condon | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Clonmel | Jordan Gainford | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 2074% of fieldRange 1-14 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength79%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 20.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/2026 | 7th | 150/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/02/2026 | 14th | 300/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 30/05/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 13/08/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 67% | +0.11 |
| 28/08/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 31% | -0.22 |
| 02/10/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |