4
Ash Hobbs
5yo Mare · 10-10
Down Royal · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Feathard Lady Mares Novice Hurdle (Grade 3) · 2m 190y
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲7
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -7.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Fairyhouse | Darragh O'Keeffe | ? | 1st | 9th | −7 |
| 2026-03-31 | Limerick | Mr J L Gleeson | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Fairyhouse | Joshua Halford | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 2-2 · tight 77/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength88%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 31/03/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 70% | +0.07 |
| 10/10/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |