5
Beir Bua
5yo Mare · 10-10 · OR 121
Down Royal · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Feathard Lady Mares Novice Hurdle (Grade 3) · 2m 190y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲7
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -6.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Listowel | Cian Quirke | ? | 2nd | 10th | −7 |
| 2026-06-18 | Leopardstown | Mr A P Ryan | ? | 9th | 17th | −7 |
| 2026-05-12 | Sligo | Cian Quirke | ? | 1st | 9th | −7 |
| 2025-08-22 | Kilbeggan | Cian Quirke | ? | 2nd | 10th | −7 |
| 2025-08-06 | Wexford | Mr A P Ryan | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-18 | Killarney | Mr A P Ryan | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-7 · tight 48/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength33%
Delivery trend -8.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/2025 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 88% | +0.82 |
| 11/07/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 18/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 71% | -0.21 |
| 06/08/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 22/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 92% | +0.10 |
| 12/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 18/06/2026 | 9th | 15/8 | 90% | 43% | -0.47 |
| 23/09/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |