7
Fastnet Crystal
5yo Mare · 10-10 · OR 121
Down Royal · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Feathard Lady Mares Novice Hurdle (Grade 3) · 2m 190y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲6
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -6.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Bellewstown | J J Slevin | BHA121 | 3rd | 16th | −11 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | J J Slevin | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Downpatrick | R Deegan | ? | 1st | 9th | −7 |
| 2026-01-12 | Punchestown | Mr F Maguire | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Thurles | Mr F Maguire | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 45/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 93% | +0.02 |
| 12/01/2026 | 10th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 26/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/13 | 97% | 60% | -0.37 |