4
Blake
5yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 139
Down Royal · bottlegreen Hurdle (Listed) · 2m 190y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Curragh | Colin Keane | BHA94 | 8th | 18th | −9 |
| 2026-04-28 | Punchestown | Donagh Meyler | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Fairyhouse | Donagh Meyler | 1 | −0 | ||
| 2026-03-08 | Naas | Sam Ewing | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Leopardstown | Donagh Meyler | 1 | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Fairyhouse | Donagh Meyler | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 4100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 78/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength100%
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2024 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 20/03/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 94% | +0.09 |
| 19/10/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 93% | +0.78 |
| 01/11/2025 | 1st | 85/40 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 30/11/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 01/02/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 64% | +0.58 |
| 08/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 28/04/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 86% | +0.30 |
| 27/09/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 76% | +0.28 |