El Cairos
6yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 143
Down Royal · bottlegreen Hurdle (Listed) · 2m 190y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Gowran Park | Jack Kennedy | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | Jack Kennedy | 1 | 7th | 7th | −0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Punchestown | Jack Kennedy | 1 | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Cheltenham | Jack Kennedy | 1 | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Thurles | Jack Kennedy | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2025-12-26 | Leopardstown | Jack Kennedy | ? | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2024 | 1st | 16/5 | 83% | 100% | +0.17 |
| 12/03/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 01/05/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 29/01/2026 | 1st | 1/5 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 10/03/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 28/04/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 57% | -0.32 |
| 30/07/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 68% | -0.05 |
| 03/10/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |