2
Heads Up
6yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 133
Down Royal · bottlegreen Hurdle (Listed) · 2m 190y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
77%
Rank
#1
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 2.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Fairyhouse | S D Bowen | 1 | −0 | ||
| 2026-02-15 | Punchestown | Danny Mullins | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Cheltenham | Danny Mullins | 1 | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Cheltenham | Mark McDonagh | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-09-25 | Listowel | Mark McDonagh | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2025-03-12 | Cheltenham | S Bowen | 1 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 467% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 45/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength30%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2024 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 26/10/2024 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 23/11/2024 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 15/12/2024 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 12/03/2025 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 94% | +0.94 |
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 14/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 24/01/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 15/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |