6
Claude
5yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 109
Down Royal · Metcollect Handicap Chase · 2m 100y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Cork | Aidan Kelly | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-10-04 | Killarney | Peter Smithers | BHA102 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | Ballinrobe | Peter Smithers | BHA102 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Tramore | Aidan Kelly | BHA104 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Galway | Aidan Kelly | BHA106 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Killarney | Aidan Kelly | BHA107 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 52/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 27/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 10/05/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 86% | +0.80 |
| 27/07/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 04/10/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 11/10/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |