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2

Costacurta

6yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 118

Down Royal · Metcollect Handicap Chase · 2m 100y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful sort from a good yard. Best of his 4 chase starts when runner-up in novice at Wexford in June. Market foretold a poor run at Listowel last time (perhaps needed the run after 8 weeks away) and still relatively early days in handicaps.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Fairyhouse 16/01/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 2m55y Sft 15816/01C8C8 @ Kilbeggan 16/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR - · 2m3f Goo 158C8 @ Kilbeggan 22/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 122 · 2m2f200y Goo 166 · below its mark22/08/2025 · OR 122 par22/08C8OR 122C8 @ Listowel 27/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 122 · 2m4f Goo 159 · below its mark27/09/2025 · OR 122 parC8 @ Wexford 27/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 120 · 2m100y Yie 168 · below its mark27/10/2025 · OR 120 par27/10C8OR 120C0 @ Tramore 29/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 1m7f110y Goo 166C8 @ Wexford 30/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 2m3f110y Goo 15930/06C8BHA120 @ Kilbeggan 24/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 120 · 2m4f85y Gd 166 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 120 parBHA120 @ Listowel 20/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 120 · 2m1f150y Goo 146 · below its mark20/09/2026 · OR 120 par20/09120OR 120projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-20ListowelMike O'ConnorBHA1207th7th0
2026-07-24KilbegganDarragh O'KeeffeBHA1204th4th0
2026-06-30WexfordDarragh O'Keeffe?2nd2nd0
2026-05-29TramoreDarragh O'Keeffe?3rd3rd0
2025-10-27WexfordDarragh O'Keeffe?3rd3rd0
2025-09-27ListowelDarragh O'Keeffe?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0127/0930/0620/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 52/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength63%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/01/20252nd8/158%92%+0.34
16/05/20251st4/797%100%+0.03
22/08/20253rd9/488%50%-0.38
27/09/20257th17/255%0%-0.55
27/10/20253rd3/184%67%-0.18
29/05/20263rd2/189%71%-0.18
30/06/20262nd5/174%89%+0.15
24/07/20264th4/179%63%-0.16
20/09/20267th12/137%45%+0.09