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10

Kalsman

8yo Gelding · 10-5 · OR 99

Down Royal · Metcollect Handicap Chase · 2m 100y

#8

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made all over hurdles here in April. Similar form when hitting the frame in back-to-back races at Downpatrick over the summer. Latest well-beaten fourth in a maiden at the same track has to go down as a lesser effort. Another who's perhaps had the edge taken off him.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 7.5)

Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C9.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA94 @ Downpatrick 29/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 94 · 2m5f185y Yie 163 · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 94 par29/0394OR 94BHA93 @ Down Royal 12/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 93 · 2m3f170y Goo 155 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 93 parBHA99 @ Downpatrick 08/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 99 · 2m5f180y Goo 167 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 99 par8/0599OR 99BHA100 @ Kilbeggan 31/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 100 · 2m3f20y Goo 168 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 100 parBHA99 @ Downpatrick 13/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 99 · 2m7f150y Gd 166 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 99 par13/0699OR 99BHA99 @ Downpatrick 09/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 99 · 2m1f165y Gd 168 · below its mark09/08/2026 · OR 99 parBHA97 @ Downpatrick 31/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 97 · 2m3f100y Gd 165 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 97 par31/0897OR 97BHA100 @ Downpatrick 18/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 100 · 2m1f165y Gd 166 · below its mark18/09/2026 · OR 100 parBHA100 @ Downpatrick 09/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 100 · 2m3f100y Goo 166 · below its mark09/10/2026 · OR 100 par9/10100OR 100projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-09DownpatrickKieren BuckleyBHA1004th4th0
2026-09-30SligoKeith DonoghueBHA1000
2026-09-18DownpatrickKieren BuckleyBHA1004th4th0
2026-08-31DownpatrickKieren BuckleyBHA972nd2nd0
2026-08-09DownpatrickKieren BuckleyBHA993rd3rd0
2026-06-13DownpatrickKieren BuckleyBHA993rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0331/0531/089/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 30/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength51%

Delivery trend -0.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/03/20266th22/10%62%+0.62
12/04/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
08/05/20269th4/179%43%-0.36
31/05/202612th18/15%15%+0.10
13/06/20263rd12/137%60%+0.23
09/08/20263rd18/15%75%+0.70
31/08/20262nd12/137%93%+0.56
18/09/20264th7/282%73%-0.09
09/10/20264th14/126%57%+0.31