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3

Manoir De Mirande

4yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 125

Down Royal · Metcollect Handicap Chase · 2m 100y

#1

Rank

Odds

85/40

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

85%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gambled on when a tired faller on chasing debut at Kilbeggan (2½m). Showed no ill-effects/again finished stronger than previously when winning a Fairyhouse maiden under a more controlled ride (2m) latest. Opening mark demands more again, though he could hardly be in better hands.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Limerick 31/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 123 · 2m Sft 161 · below its mark31/03/2026 · OR 123 par31/03C8OR 123C8 @ Bellewstown 18/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 120 · 2m1f30y Yie 161 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 120 parC8 @ Ballinrobe 26/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 117 · 2m13y Goo 160 · below its mark26/05/2026 · OR 117 par26/05C8OR 117C8 @ Roscommon 06/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 115 · 1m7f204y Gd 162 · below its mark06/07/2026 · OR 115 parC8 @ Sligo 12/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 115 · 2m1f90y Gd 161 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 115 par12/07C8OR 115C8 @ Ballinrobe 21/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 115 · 2m1f89y Gd 159 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 115 parC8 @ Sligo 06/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 120 · 2m1f193y Goo 165 · below its mark06/08/2026 · OR 120 par6/08C8OR 120BHA120 @ Ballinrobe 24/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 120 · 2m2f44y Gd 166 · below its mark24/08/2026 · OR 120 parC0 @ Fairyhouse 10/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 2m110y Goo 15710/10C?projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-10FairyhouseJack Kennedy?1st1st0
2026-09-04KilbegganJoshua Halford?0
2026-08-24BallinrobeJoshua HalfordBHA1203rd3rd0
2026-08-06SligoJosh Williamson?2nd2nd0
2026-07-21BallinrobeJack Kennedy?1st1st0
2026-07-12SligoJack Kennedy?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/036/076/0810/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 74/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength87%

Delivery trend -0.1% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/03/20262nd5/287%90%+0.03
18/04/20263rd3/184%87%+0.02
26/05/20263rd9/276%86%+0.09
06/07/20267th11/486%54%-0.32
12/07/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
21/07/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
06/08/20262nd3/184%75%-0.09
24/08/20263rd4/179%50%-0.29
10/10/20261st4/179%100%+0.21