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5

Mercury Mission

7yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 112

Down Royal · Metcollect Handicap Chase · 2m 100y

#6

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Three-time hurdle winner. Advanced his form when placing in 3 consecutive maiden chases this spring. Did plenty wrong on a couple of starts subsequently, though, now returning 3 months on from an x-rated fall at Wexford.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C11.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA113 @ Tramore 30/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 113 · 2m Goo 161 · below its mark30/05/2025 · OR 113 par30/05113OR 113BHA112 @ Bellewstown 05/07/2025 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 112 · 2m1f40y Gd 148 · below its mark05/07/2025 · OR 112 parBHA110 @ Ballinrobe 22/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 110 · 2m1f89y Gd 156 · below its mark22/07/2025 · OR 110 par22/07110OR 110BHA110 @ Wexford 08/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 110 · 2m180y Goo 146 · beat its mark08/08/2025 · OR 110 parBHA114 @ Bellewstown 27/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 114 · 2m4f110y Gd 154 · below its mark27/08/2025 · OR 114 par27/08114OR 114C0 @ Clonmel 14/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 1m7f131y Yie 166C0 @ Wexford 07/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 2m Goo 1667/05C?C0 @ Tramore 29/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m7f110y Goo 166BHA117 @ Wexford 30/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 117 · 2m Goo 160 · below its mark30/06/2026 · OR 117 par30/06117OR 117projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-22WexfordLiam McKennaBHA1140
2026-06-30WexfordLiam McKennaBHA1175th5th0
2026-05-29TramoreLiam McKenna?2nd2nd0
2026-05-07WexfordLiam McKenna?3rd3rd0
2026-04-14ClonmelLiam McKenna?2nd2nd0
2026-03-29DownpatrickLiam McKenna?0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/058/087/0530/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 30/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength57%

Delivery trend +7.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/05/20255th9/488%20%-0.68
05/07/202510th25/10%40%+0.40
22/07/20253rd9/276%75%-0.01
08/08/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
27/08/20257th14/126%50%+0.24
14/04/20262nd80/10%88%+0.88
07/05/20263rd16/116%78%+0.62
29/05/20262nd7/163%86%+0.23
30/06/20265th7/163%67%+0.04