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9

Phoenix Arizona

7yo Gelding · 10-6 · OR 100

Down Royal · Metcollect Handicap Chase · 2m 100y

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Opened his account over fences in handicap at Ballinrobe last month. No surprise to see cheekpieces refitted, having been off the bridle much earlier than usual at Cork (2¼m) latest. Has probably done his winning for the time being.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Kilbeggan 15/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR - · 2m4f90y Gd 16615/05C?C8 @ Listowel 30/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 17 · OR 90 · 2m100y Goo 166 · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 90 parC8 @ Sligo 09/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 90 · 2m2f Yie 148 · below its mark09/06/2026 · OR 90 par9/06C8OR 90BHA90 @ Sligo 12/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 90 · 2m1f90y Gd 140 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 90 parBHA93 @ Sligo 06/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 93 · 2m1f193y Gd 162 · below its mark06/08/2026 · OR 93 par6/0893OR 93BHA94 @ Sligo 19/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 94 · 2m4f148y Gd 164 · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 94 parBHA93 @ Ballinrobe 11/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 93 · 2m1f48y Yie 149 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 93 par11/0993OR 93C8 @ Sligo 30/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 100 · 2m1f153y Gd 148 · below its mark30/09/2026 · OR 100 parC8 @ Cork 11/10/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 100 · 2m1f140y Goo 166 · below its mark11/10/2026 · OR 100 par11/10C8OR 100projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-11CorkThomas O'Connor?5th5th0
2026-09-30SligoThomas O'Connor?3rd3rd0
2026-09-11BallinrobeThomas O'ConnorBHA931st1st0
2026-08-19SligoThomas O'ConnorBHA948th8th0
2026-08-06SligoThomas O'ConnorBHA932nd2nd0
2026-07-12SligoThomas O'ConnorBHA903rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0512/0711/0911/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 4-9 · tight 60/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength20%

Delivery trend -6.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/05/202613th125/10%8%+0.08
30/05/202611th200/10%38%+0.38
09/06/20264th40/10%67%+0.67
12/07/20263rd5/174%82%+0.08
06/08/20262nd4/179%93%+0.14
19/08/20268th7/282%53%-0.28
11/09/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
30/09/20263rd5/287%67%-0.20
11/10/20265th7/163%33%-0.30