11
Sayitfirst
10yo Mare · 10-0 · OR 91
Down Royal · Metcollect Handicap Chase · 2m 100y
#9
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Clonmel | Tom Kelly | BHA93 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-10-08 | Tramore | Danny Gilligan | BHA95 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | Listowel | Evan Nugent | BHA86 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | Ballinrobe | Michael Kenneally | BHA98 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ballinrobe | Danny Gilligan | BHA87 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Cork | Danny Gilligan | 1 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 4-8 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength37%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 09/10/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 31/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 91% | +0.44 |
| 20/11/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 10/08/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 11/09/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 40% | -0.02 |
| 24/09/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 08/10/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 22/10/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |