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8

Hilly Filly

4yo Filly · 11-6

Down Royal · WTW Willis Flat Race · 2m 190y

#1

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

81%

Place Prob

55%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Looked an above-average prospect in justifying support on debut at Cork in July, coming from an unlikely position. Matched that form when second here a month later and much better judged on those exploits having been left poorly placed when seventh at Punchestown (2m) 16 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Cork 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR - · 2m190y Goo 15910/07C?C0 @ Down Royal 28/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 2m1f87y Goo 16228/08C?C0 @ Punchestown 14/10/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 2m95y Gd 15714/10C?projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-14PunchestownMr L P Shanahan?7th7th0
2026-08-28Down RoyalMr L P Shanahan?2nd2nd0
2026-07-10CorkMr L P Shanahan?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0728/0814/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 8-8 · tight 77/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -39.2% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/07/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
28/08/20262nd5/287%90%+0.03
14/10/20267th5/174%40%-0.34