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Ifuknowuknow

5yo Gelding · 12-0

Down Royal · WTW Willis Flat Race · 2m 190y

#3

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Shaped like a stayer in a pair of bumpers (for N. Madden) last winter and duly benefited from the longer trip/after 9 months off when making a winning stable debut at Downpatrick (2¼m, soft) 42 days ago. Faces a much stiffer task under a penalty but possibly hasn't shown his all in this sphere.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Punchestown 15/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 2m95y Goo 15715/10C?C0 @ Leopardstown 26/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 2m Yie 16426/12C?C0 @ Downpatrick 18/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 2m1f165y Gd 16818/09C?projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18DownpatrickMiss A B O'Connor?1st1st0
2025-12-26LeopardstownMiss A B O'Connor?7th7th0
2025-10-15PunchestownMiss A B O'Connor?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/1026/1218/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength95%

Delivery trend +5.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/10/20256th12/137%44%+0.08
26/12/20257th80/10%45%+0.45
18/09/20261st7/282%100%+0.18