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5

Rejoinder

2yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 6 · OR 81

Dundalk · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improved effort (fair form) when second of 13 in maiden at the Curragh (6f, good to soft) 10 days ago, running on. Will need to up his game again to go close here, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼2
Strength35%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: +2.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Naas 04/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 5f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS4/071C8 @ Naas 11/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 5f205y Sft 13111/10C8C8 @ Curragh 20/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 6f Yie 13320/10C8projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-20CurraghLeigh Roche?2nd2nd0
2026-10-11NaasDonagh O'Connor?4th4th0
2026-07-04NaasDonagh O'Connor19th0th+7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0711/1020/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 77/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +48.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/07/20269th16/116%11%-0.05
11/10/20264th22/10%50%+0.50
20/10/20262nd50/10%92%+0.92