11

Sapphire Sun

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 10

Dundalk · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden · 5f

#5

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed a bit when sixth of 15 on 6f Naas debut in August. Too headstrong in a big-field sales race at the Curragh since so may benefit from the drop to the minimum trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼2
Strength31%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 9.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 23/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR - · 5f205y Goo 12623/08C8C5 @ Curragh 13/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR - · 6f63y Yie 124 · HIGHER CLASS13/09C5projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13CurraghBen Coen?12th8th+4
2026-08-23NaasBen Coen?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 13-13 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -27.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/20266th16/116%64%+0.48
13/09/202612th80/10%21%+0.21