Southern Boulevard

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 4 · OR 89

Dundalk · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden · 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

5/6

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

87%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▼1

Strength55%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class: 1

Recent avg: C6.6

Today:

Class gap: +1.4

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-02	Dundalk	Gary Carroll	1	4th	-5th	+7	5.0
2026-08-27	Navan	Colin Keane	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-08-14	Cork	Colin Keane	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-07-19	Curragh	Gary Carroll	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-07-04	Naas	Gary Carroll	?	5th	5th	0	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 78/100

▲ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +11.5% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
04/07/2026	5th	17/2	55%	33%	-0.22
19/07/2026	3rd	20/1	0%	80%	+0.80
14/08/2026	2nd	11/8	93%	93%	+0.01
27/08/2026	2nd	3/1	84%	86%	+0.02
02/10/2026	4th	80/1	0%	75%	+0.75