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One Cool Bear

3yo Gelding · 10-2 · Draw 12 · OR 60

Dundalk · View Restaurant At Dundalk Handicap (0-60) · 5f

#5

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Capitalised on a reduced mark when scoring at Bellewstown (5f) earlier this month and back to that sort of form when creditable third of 21 in handicap (14/1) at Navan (6f, soft) 9 days ago. Respected.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 7.6)

Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA64 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 64 · 7f111y Gd 132 · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 64 par11/0564OR 64BHA63 @ Fairyhouse 28/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 63 · 7f Gd 131 · below its mark28/05/2026 · OR 63 parBHA60 @ Fairyhouse 12/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 60 · 6f Goo 134 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 60 par12/0660OR 60BHA55 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 18 · OR 55 · 5f Gd 137 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 55 parBHA55 @ Fairyhouse 21/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR 55 · 6f Goo 123 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 55 par21/0955OR 55BHA52 @ Bellewstown 01/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 52 · 5f3y Sft 135 · beat its mark01/10/2026 · OR 52 parBHA52 @ Navan 07/10/2026 · Pos 7th of 22 · OR 52 · 5f180y Yie 140 · beat its mark07/10/2026 · OR 52 par7/1052OR 52BHA58 @ Curragh 15/10/2026 · Pos 7th of 17 · OR 58 · 5f Sft 128 · beat its mark15/10/2026 · OR 58 parBHA58 @ Navan 21/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 21 · OR 58 · 5f180y Yie 140 · beat its mark21/10/2026 · OR 58 par21/1058OR 58projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-21NavanPatrick McGettiganBHA583rd3rd0
2026-10-15CurraghJulian PietropaoloBHA587th7th0
2026-10-07NavanAdam CaffreyBHA527th7th0
2026-10-01BellewstownAdam CaffreyBHA521st1st0
2026-09-21FairyhouseGavin RyanBHA558th8th0
2026-09-05NavanAdam CaffreyBHA558th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/055/097/1021/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 87/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/05/20267th8/158%50%-0.08
28/05/202613th12/137%0%-0.37
12/06/202614th20/10%7%+0.07
05/09/20268th66/10%59%+0.59
21/09/20268th28/10%56%+0.56
01/10/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
07/10/20267th11/142%71%+0.29
15/10/20267th9/153%63%+0.10
21/10/20263rd14/126%90%+0.64