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5

Simmering Seas

3yo Filly · 9-12 · Draw 15 · OR 56

Dundalk · View Restaurant At Dundalk Handicap (0-60) · 5f

#10

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Yet to win but has largely run well for this yard. Seemed stretched by longer trip here a fortnight ago and can make her presence felt.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 8.3)

Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA58 @ Curragh 16/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 58 · 6f Gd 119 · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 58 par16/0858OR 58BHA58 @ Naas 22/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 58 · 5f Sft 126 · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 58 parBHA58 @ Bellewstown 11/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 58 · 5f3y Sft 129 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 58 par11/0458OR 58BHA54 @ Cork 14/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 54 · 5f Goo 126 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 54 parBHA54 @ Naas 23/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 19 · OR 54 · 5f Goo 134 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 54 par23/0854OR 54BHA54 @ Curragh 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 19 · OR 54 · 6f Yie 121 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 54 parBHA58 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 58 · 5f Gd 140 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 58 par5/0958OR 58BHA58 @ Cork 29/09/2026 · Pos 17th of 19 · OR 58 · 6f Sft 140 · below its mark29/09/2026 · OR 58 parBHA57 @ Dundalk 16/10/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 57 · 7f Std 138 · beat its mark16/10/2026 · OR 57 par16/1057OR 57projClass-projected finish: 6th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-16DundalkTerry CaseyBHA577th7th0
2026-09-29CorkBen CoenBHA5817th17th0
2026-09-05NavanBen CoenBHA584th4th0
2026-08-29CurraghJimmy DaltonBHA542nd2nd0
2026-08-23NaasTerry CaseyBHA544th4th0
2026-08-14CorkTerry CaseyBHA542nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0814/085/0916/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 8-14 · tight 68/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength6%

Delivery trend -2.4% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/08/20257th15/261%45%-0.15
22/03/20266th16/116%64%+0.48
11/04/202610th15/261%36%-0.25
14/08/20262nd11/486%91%+0.05
23/08/20264th7/282%83%+0.02
29/08/20262nd9/153%94%+0.42
05/09/20264th6/168%82%+0.14
29/09/202617th7/163%11%-0.52
16/10/20267th8/158%54%-0.04