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11

Steel Magnolia

4yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 10 · OR 51

Dundalk · View Restaurant At Dundalk Handicap (0-60) · 5f

#12

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Seen to best effect when doubling her tally at Naas in August (form franked since) and made the frame off higher marks on next 2 starts. Needs to bounce back from poor run at the Curragh latest, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: BHA43
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA46 @ Bellewstown 11/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 46 · 5f3y Sft 128 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 46 par11/0446OR 46BHA46 @ Cork 19/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 46 · 5f Sft 128 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 46 parBHA43 @ Naas 24/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 21 · OR 43 · 5f Gd 125 · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 43 par24/0643OR 43BHA43 @ Bellewstown 03/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 43 · 5f3y Gd 125 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 43 parBHA43 @ Naas 03/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 43 · 5f Goo 125 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 43 par3/0843OR 43BHA45 @ Naas 23/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 19 · OR 45 · 5f Goo 127 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 45 parBHA55 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 55 · 5f Gd 138 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 55 par5/0955OR 55BHA55 @ Bellewstown 01/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 55 · 5f3y Sft 138 · beat its mark01/10/2026 · OR 55 parBHA55 @ Curragh 15/10/2026 · Pos 14th of 17 · OR 55 · 5f Sft 125 · beat its mark15/10/2026 · OR 55 par15/1055OR 55projClass-projected finish: 5th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-15CurraghPatrick McGettiganBHA5514th14th0
2026-10-01BellewstownBilly LeeBHA554th4th0
2026-09-05NavanBilly LeeBHA553rd3rd0
2026-08-23NaasBilly LeeBHA451st1st0
2026-08-03NaasKeithen KennedyBHA432nd2nd0
2026-07-03BellewstownDeclan McDonoghBHA437th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/043/075/0915/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 11-14 · tight 80/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -4.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/04/20264th17/255%79%+0.23
19/05/20263rd10/382%75%-0.07
24/06/20264th15/261%85%+0.24
03/07/20267th4/179%50%-0.29
03/08/20262nd5/174%93%+0.19
23/08/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
05/09/20263rd5/174%88%+0.15
01/10/20264th11/893%63%-0.30
15/10/202614th17/255%19%-0.37