2
Bear On The Run
3yo Filly · 9-3 · Draw 5 · OR 88
Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting 'Bet 10 Get 50' Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
71%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Dundalk | Ben Coen | BHA89 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | Newmarket | Ben Coen | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Curragh | Dylan Browne McMonagle | BHA87 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-15 | Dundalk | Shane Foley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-05-05 | Curragh | Jamie Powell | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -19.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 69% | -0.10 |
| 15/08/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 24/09/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 44% | -0.42 |
| 02/10/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |