6
City House
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 81
Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting 'Bet 10 Get 50' Handicap · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Dundalk | Reese Holohan | BHA83 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-10-10 | Naas | James Ryan | BHA85 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-26 | Curragh | Adam Caffrey | BHA88 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | Gowran Park | Adam Caffrey | BHA89 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | James Ryan | BHA92 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Curragh | Ronan Whelan | BHA94 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 3-6 · tight 72/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength51%
Delivery trend -12.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 23/05/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 79% | +0.73 |
| 18/07/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 47% | 0.00 |
| 02/08/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 19/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 26/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 10/10/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 16/10/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 55% | -0.19 |