5
Frescobaldi
3yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 7 · OR 83
Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting 'Bet 10 Get 50' Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Dundalk | Terry Casey | BHA87 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-09-26 | Curragh | Terry Casey | BHA91 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Naas | Shane Foley | BHA94 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Newbury | S M Levey | 1 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Navan | James Ryan | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Dundalk | Ronan Whelan | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 5-8 · tight 72/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength3%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 22/08/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/09/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 43% | -0.41 |
| 10/10/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 16/05/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 26/09/2026 | 16th | 50/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 16/10/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |